Markets pulled back to start the week as looming tariff deadlines, political volatility, and central bank uncertainty unsettled investors. Despite recent record highs, traders are now eyeing July 9 and August 1 as critical markers for global trade dynamics.
Tariff headlines and moving deadlines
Wall Street paused its bull run to start Monday on the back foot bracing for a barrage of tariff headlines before Wednesday, which U.S. President Donald Trump set as the expiration of a postponement he declared in the wake of the April 2 “Liberation Day” meltdown.
While last week’s record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suggest that markets are learning to take the White House’s fluid trade tactics in stride, they did pull back even more at midday after Trump said that from August 1 he will impose 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, two of the U.S.’s most stalwart trade allies who have yet to reach trade deals with Trump.
Trump has promised to notify countries that haven’t reached deals by the July 9 deadline of what their new tariffs will be as of August 1, which now becomes the next big calendar notation for investors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said more trade announcements were likely by Wednesday.
Monday’s pullback aside, the stock market has more than recovered from the April panic, riding out numerous other potential major risks, from Trump’s threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, to the U.S. bombing of Iran nuclear sites to last week’s passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” that economists predict will add trillions to the U.S. debt, any tariff revenue notwithstanding.
Markets Retreat: Currency Moves
Only the dollar remains deep underwater. Although it bounced nicely on Monday, it is off 7% against the euro since April 2, and the broader dollar index is down about 6%, while the S&P 500 is up 9.5%. The 10-year Treasury note’s benchmark yield is only about 20 basis points higher than its April 2 close, having weathered global concern that the U.S. was no longer a safe place to be invested.
Tesla Slides as Musk Launches ‘America Party’
Speaking of the “big beautiful” tax bill, Tesla CEO and former-Trumpally-turned enemy Elon Musk declared it would bankrupt America and announced the formation of a third U.S. political party, the America Party. Investors immediately tanked Tesla shares, which also weighed on Wall Street, recalling how his stint running Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency was a costly distraction from the business of making electric vehicles and rockets.
Markets Outlook: Volatility Ahead
While stocks remain elevated near record highs, markets are poised for turbulence in the days ahead. With tariff announcements, political surprises, and macroeconomic data all converging, risk sentiment could shift rapidly.
Investors are watching:
- July 9: Final tariff announcement deadline
- August 1: Scheduled 25% tariffs for non-deal countries
- U.S. CPI & Fed comments: Due later this week
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