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Dollar Retreats Below 100 as EUR/USD Holds Above 1.13

US Dollar Index

The USD extended its losing streak last week, dropping below the 100 mark for the first time in weeks. Investor sentiment remains shaky, weighed down by soft economic data and growing uncertainty around the Fed’s next policy steps. Despite a temporary mid-week bounce, the greenback couldn’t hold gains amid a pullback in Treasury yields.

Technical Outlook:

The DXY broke below 100.20 and is now testing support around 99.00. The formation of a short-term lower high pattern suggests further downside may follow if buyers don’t defend this zone.

  • If the DXY fails to hold above 99.00, watch for a further slide toward 97.70, a level that acted as a springboard in previous weeks.
  • On the flip side, a recovery above 100.20 would be the first sign of renewed bullish momentum, with resistance seen at 101.85 and 102.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD showed resilience despite mixed Eurozone PMIs and cautious remarks from ECB officials. The pair broke above 1.13 last week, supported mainly by a weakening USD and improving global risk sentiment. Markets now await inflation updates and the ECB minutes later this week.

Technical Outlook:

The pair is currently hovering near 1.1350 after testing resistance at 1.1380.

  • If EUR/USD holds above 1.1300, a bullish extension toward 1.1484 and possibly 1.1666 could be in play.
  • A rejection at current levels and a drop below 1.1300 would shift the focus back to 1.1143, the key downside level from earlier this month.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remained volatile, pressured by weak Japanese GDP data and rising fears of a global slowdown. The yen found some strength as traders shifted toward safer assets, while the dollar’s weakness added further weight. However, BOJ policy divergence continues to offer a floor to the pair.

Technical Outlook:

After failing to hold above 145.00, the pair retreated and is now consolidating near 144.50.

  • If USD/JPY stays below 145.35, further downside toward 142.08 and 140.33 is likely.
  • A break above 145.35 would re-expose resistance at 146.44 and 149.24, confirming the uptrend remains intact.

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