US Dollar Index
On April 22, President Trump hinted at easing tariffs, stating that direct negotiations had begun. However, markets responded cautiously. Meanwhile, a new Fed survey released on April 25 highlighted global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and US debt sustainability as top potential threats to the financial system.
Technical Outlook:
Last week, the DXY dipped near the critical 97.70 support before rebounding strongly, reclaiming the 99 level. This suggests robust buying support. Unless upcoming economic data or policy shifts severely undermine market confidence, the DXY is poised for a technical recovery.
• Bullish Scenario: If the DXY stabilizes above 99, resistance levels to watch are 101.85 and 102.80.
• Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold 99 could reignite selling pressure, targeting 97.70 and 96.75 as key support zones.
EUR/USD
ECB officials indicated last week that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut would depend on medium-term inflation and growth prospects. After seven consecutive 25 basis point cuts, the euro briefly surged alongside the dollar’s weakness, possibly giving the ECB more room for aggressive easing at its June 5 meeting.
Technical Outlook:
EUR/USD spiked higher but ultimately closed lower, forming a long upper shadow — signaling heavy selling pressure near the highs. The pair faces a critical test this week:
• Bearish Scenario: If EUR/USD remains below 1.1484, a technical correction is likely. Support levels are at 1.1143 and 1.0940.
• Bullish Scenario: A recovery above 1.1484 would suggest that sellers are losing control, potentially driving EUR/USD toward resistance at 1.1666 and 1.1915.
USD/JPY
Last week, after meeting with the US Treasury Secretary, Japan’s Finance Minister clarified that no discussions were held about setting currency targets, countering Trump’s earlier criticism of Japan’s weaker yen. Japan’s chief trade negotiator will meet US counterparts again this week, while BOJ officials reiterated a cautious stance on rate hikes, mindful of US tariff impacts.
Technical Outlook:
USD/JPY stabilized and rallied from the key 140.33 support, forming a “triple bottom” — highlighting the level’s strategic importance.
• Bullish Scenario: If momentum continues, look for resistance at 144.01 and 146.44.
• Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 140.33 would open the door to deeper declines, with support at 137.25 and 130.54.
Forward Looking Statement Disclaimer
This document contains forward-looking statements, which can generally be identified by the words “expects,” “believes,” “continues,” “may,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “hopes,” “intends,” “plans,” “potential,” “predicts,” “should,” “will,” or similar expressions. Such statements are based on CG FinTech’s current expectations and assumptions, but actual results could differ materially from those anticipated due to a number of risks and uncertainties. CG FinTech does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of these statements and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.
Disclaimer
The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) and foreign exchange (forex) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. It is important to fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice if necessary.
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