US Dollar Index
April’s US consumer confidence index deteriorated sharply, reflecting the impact of trade tensions on market sentiment. The 12-month inflation expectation surged to its highest level since 1981, driving demand for safe-haven assets.
On April 10, Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for some countries, but fears of shrinking global trade volumes intensified. Confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset has wavered, leading to a sharp drop in the US Dollar Index.
The 10-year Treasury yield recorded its largest single-week increase since 2001, reflecting market concerns over inflation and policy uncertainty, further eroding the dollar’s appeal.
Last week, the US Dollar Index broke sharply below the 101.85 level, plunging past the key 100 mark and stabilizing around 99. This week, focus on the 99 level as a key pivot:
- If the US Dollar Index stabilizes above 99 and rebounds, watch for resistance at 101.85 and 102.80.
- If the index breaks below 99 with momentum, monitor support levels at 97.70 and 95.10, with particular attention to the 97.70 level.
EUR/USD
The European Central Bank has signaled readiness to deploy tools to maintain financial stability, boosting market confidence in the Eurozone’s economic resilience. The decline in the US Dollar Index has provided upward momentum for the euro, further supported by optimistic expectations for the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
Last week, EUR/USD rose sharply as expected after breaking above the key 1.0940 level, reaching the critical resistance of 1.1484. This week, focus on the 1.1484 level as a pivot:
- If EUR/USD faces pressure near 1.1484 and pulls back, watch for support at 1.1143 and 1.0940.
- If EUR/USD breaks above 1.1484 and holds steady, it could open further upside, with resistance at 1.1666 and 1.1915.
USD/JPY
Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, combined with tariff rhetoric, have injected uncertainty into markets, boosting the yen’s appeal as a safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index hitting a two-year low has reduced downward pressure on USD/JPY, allowing the yen to rebound.
Last week, USD/JPY faced pressure near the key 146.44 level, with bearish momentum remaining strong. This week, continue to monitor the 146.44 level as a pivot:
- If USD/JPY remains under pressure near 146.44, it may extend its decline, with support at 140.33 and 137.25.
- If USD/JPY rebounds and breaks above 146.44, it could open further upside, with resistance at 149.24 and 152.05.
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This document contains forward-looking statements, which can generally be identified by the words “expects,” “believes,” “continues,” “may,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “hopes,” “intends,” “plans,” “potential,” “predicts,” “should,” “will,” or similar expressions. Such statements are based on CG FinTech’s current expectations and assumptions, but actual results could differ materially from those anticipated due to a number of risks and uncertainties. CG FinTech does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of these statements and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.
Disclaimer
The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) and foreign exchange (forex) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. It is important to fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice if necessary.
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