Crude oil prices traded flat on Tuesday as investors weighed the effects of new U.S. tariffs targeting buyers of Venezuelan oil, against a backdrop of uncertain global demand and a technically fragile market setup.
Brent crude inched up by 1 cent to $73.01 per barrel as of 0424 GMT, while U.S. WTI crude dipped 1 cent to $69.10. Both benchmarks had gained more than 1% in the previous session following President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on countries importing Venezuelan oil. China, already under U.S. trade pressure, remains Venezuela’s largest oil customer.
Technical Levels to Watch
• WTI crude is currently testing support at $69, a level that has held over the last three sessions. A break below $68.50 could open the door to further downside toward the next key support at $66.80.
• On the upside, resistance is seen around $71.40, where price previously failed to sustain a breakout. A daily close above this level could signal bullish continuation toward the $73.80-$75.00 zone.
• Brent faces near-term resistance at $74.20, while strong support lies near $71.50.
Ueno added that WTI is likely to consolidate near $70 through the second quarter, with potential bullish pressure building into the U.S. summer driving season, when gasoline demand typically peaks.
Macro Pressures Still In Play
Crude prices pulled back from session highs after the U.S. extended a deadline for Chevron to wind down its operations in Venezuela to May 27. Analysts at ANZ noted this move could delay an expected production drop of 200,000 barrels per day, softening near-term supply concerns.
Meanwhile, market sentiment remains fragile, with global trade tensions stoked by Trump’s hints at automobile tariffs. However, his remarks also suggested flexibility, as not all tariffs would be implemented on April 2, and some nations could be exempt—providing short-term relief for risk assets.
OPEC+ and Geopolitics in Focus
Sources told Reuters that OPEC+ is expected to raise output in May for a second consecutive month, despite enforcing new production caps on overproducing members. With prices stabilizing, the alliance sees room to incrementally increase supply without destabilizing the market.
Traders are also closely monitoring the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as U.S. and Russian officials concluded a round of maritime ceasefire talks. A breakthrough could ease geopolitical risks and lead to increased Russian crude availability, especially into European and Asian markets.
Bottom Line: Range-Bound with Risk Triggers Ahead
Oil is currently trading within a consolidation zone, lacking strong directional conviction. Macro risk—particularly from U.S. tariffs, OPEC+ policy, and geopolitical headlines—will likely drive breakouts or breakdowns from current levels.
Traders are advised to watch key technical levels and await clear catalysts before taking large directional positions.
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