US Dollar Index
The US dollar remained under pressure last week, struggling to regain the 100 level. Confidence in the dollar as a safe-haven asset continues to erode amid trade war tensions. Market sentiment remains cautious, driven by tariff uncertainties, progress in US trade negotiations, and commentary from central bank officials.
Technical Outlook:
Last week, the DXY traded sideways in a narrow range between 99 and 100. On shorter timeframes, the index’s pivot point continues to trend lower, indicating bearish momentum outweighs bullish resistance. This week, the 99 level serves as a key battleground:
• Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below 99 could trigger further downside, with support levels at 97.70 and 95.10 in focus.
• Bullish Scenario: If the index finds solid support near 99 and rebounds, it may signal the beginning of a strong recovery. Key resistance levels to watch are 101.85 and 102.80.
EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% last week, marking the seventh rate cut in a year and the lowest borrowing cost since the end of 2022. The ECB warned that US tariffs could severely hurt economic growth, increasing market expectations for further easing in the coming months.
Technical Outlook:
EUR/USD climbed steadily last week but failed to break above the crucial resistance level at 1.1484. This remains the key level to watch:
• Bearish Scenario: If the pair faces renewed selling pressure near 1.1484, watch for a pullback toward support at 1.1143 and 1.0940.
• Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 1.1484 would open the door for further gains, with resistance seen at 1.1666 and 1.1915.
USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) signaled a possible pause in its rate hike cycle, citing concerns over the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s economy. Reports suggest the BOJ may lower its growth outlook during its upcoming April 30–May 1 meeting, adding to concerns over a fragile recovery.
Technical Outlook:
USD/JPY continued its decline last week, with bearish sentiment dominating. This week, 140.33 is the key pivot:
• Bullish Scenario: If the pair finds strong support at 140.33 and stages a rebound, resistance will come into play at 144.01 and 146.44.
• Bearish Scenario: A firm break below 140.33 could pave the way for deeper losses, with support levels at 137.25 and 130.54.
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Disclaimer
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